A Scary Statistic
"In New Orleans, before the storm, about 4 out of 10 men in the working-age population were out of a job or not looking for one, compared with less than 3 in 10 nationally." Quoted from an article by Adam Nossiter in The New York Times online edition, January 21, 2007.
The four out of ten in New Orleans is not the scary statistic. Think about it, 30% of men of working age in the country aren't working. However you juggle the numbers, there are a bunch of people being supported by the rest of us.
The unemployment rate for December 2006 was 4.5% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rate for white and black men, respectively was 3.5% and 8.3%. "Unemployed," as I understand the term means not working but looking for work. Putting these numbers together means that more than 21.5% of men of working age aren't looking for work. (The percentage would be higher using a blended white/black rate, which I couldn't find.)
I'm not an economist. I'm not great at math; and, I'm even worse at statistics. But, an economy where at least twenty percent of the available male work force is "sitting it out" is not healthy.
8 comments:
I'll say it's scary! This is the kind of statistic that needs explanation. Maybe I'll poke around and see if there are any places that confirm and explain it.
Here's what I worry about: eventually a charismatic leader eventually will emerge from "the unheard third," and realize "Hey we're getting screwed, but we've got guns!"
That number does sound excessive. I wonder how many of those people really do earn money and just don't report it.
I found William Oakland,who happens to be a rather educated fellow at Tulane, and asked him about this statistic. Here is his response.
"Sir: The figure in my study refers to the number of individuals of working age who were not at work. The New Orleans figure was 42%, the figure for the nation was 36%. These figures were taken from the 2000 Census.
The gap, 6 percentage points, is less than that implied by Nossiter's rounding."
I guess we need to look at the 2000 census to maybe find out why 1/3 of us working age persons are not working. Pretty amazing, yes?
So, I went to the 2000 census and checked out the stat. You can, too, at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/c2kbr-18.pdf.
Turns out the 36% number is the percent of 217 million Americans aged 16 and older, male and female, who are not in the workforce. This would include all non-working students, retirees, and housewives. Talk about a crap statistic! And New Orleans is only 42% after a hurricane...
Nossiter's journalism license should be put on probation, and you, Dave, are the one who's question has exposed this junk writing. Congratulations!
Right on Life hiker.
All statistics are suspect. Some more that others.
Taking the 36% and backing out women would seem to indicate that Nossiter made up the 3 out of 10 figure for men not working. I get razzed by friends for reading NYTimes. I guess it does have some institutional problems in addition to the liberal bent my friends dislike.
Life Hiker, By the way, congratulations are yours. I read an article, you did all the work.
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